000 AXNT20 KNHC 251129 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 8N19W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO EQ30W TO 1S40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-1N BETWEEN 27W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W TO S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE FRONT OVER MEXICO AND THE NW GULF FROM 18N-29N BETWEEN 89W-98W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FROM 22N-26N W OF FRONT. 25-30 KT NE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. IN CONTRAST S OF THE FRONT 5 KT S WINDS ARE NOTED WITH FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK END OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W. 20-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO INCLUDE OVER COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT HAS EMERGED OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N27W 26N30W 23N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 22W-30W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 30N30W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA