000
AXNT20 KNHC 240550
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 
03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W THEN TO 03S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 12W-16W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING 
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. 
WHILE MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT REMAINS 
WELL TO THE NORTH OF 32N...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 24N 
WESTWARD TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. STRONG SOUTH 
TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF IN ADVANCE 
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA 
COAST BY 24/1200 UTC. CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER NORTH 
TEXAS AND UPON ENTERING THE GULF WILL RESULT IN STRONG N-NE 
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF W OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N75W 
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS 
WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. FRESH TRADES ARE 
FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC 
REGION THIS EVENING...PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE. 
THIS IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 36N41W...EXTENDING FROM THE 
HIGH TO 32N48W THEN W-SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W 
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SW 
NORTH ATLC. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 40N31W TO 25N36W SUPPORTS A 
COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W. THE 
FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 24N40W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 
22N50W TO 22N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH FAR WESTERN REACHES OF THE FRONT 
CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. LASTLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE 
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE...DUE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST...ANCHORED BY 
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA...THE 
BAY OF BISCAY...AND FRANCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN