000 AXNT20 KNHC 232332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 2N9W 4N15W TO 2N26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE SE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS NW OF LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. SW RETURN FLOW COVERS THE N GULF AS A SURFACE LOW/FRONT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SW RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW GULF EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI EVENING THEN STALL FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT N SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE W ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS THE GULF LATE MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BRINGING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MAINTAIN THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 550 NM W OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 29N48W ALONG 26N63W ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO 31N68W AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 27W-42W EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N29W TO 25N37W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N49W TO 21N59W TO 24N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT E OF 54W. W/CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE TONIGHT. WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS ATLC N OF 30N TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTER FAR W ATLC FRI NIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING SUN THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW