000
AXNT20 KNHC 231141
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 01W-07W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING 
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY 
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 24N WESTWARD TO 
THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 
RETURN FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THIS 
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE 
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO 
EARLY FRIDAY AND RESULT IN STRONG N-NE WINDS WITH GALE FORCE 
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N74W 
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS 
WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS 
MORNING...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS 
PROVIDING ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST...A 1030 MB 
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 
35N46W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WITH AXIS ALONG 35W EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 25N THAT SUPPORTS A 
COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W. THE 
FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 26N38W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 
23N45W TO 22N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT 
S OF 28N. LASTLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH 
CENTERED WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N15W THAT RESULTS 
IN STRONG NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN