000 AXNT20 KNHC 230554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO 01N33W TO 02N41W TO 01N50. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 04W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR THE BAHAMAS ALONG 24N WESTWARD TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY FRIDAY AND RESULT IN STRONG N-NE WINDS WITH GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N76W AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST...A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N50W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 37W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 23N AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W. THE FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 26N40W TO 23N48W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N57W AND DISSIPATING WESTWARD TO 21N68W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. LASTLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N16W THAT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN STRONG NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN