000
AXNT20 KNHC 221141
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 
02N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
02N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W THEN ALONG 01S TO 48W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 14W-29W...AND FROM 
02N-06N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD OVER THE 
GULF PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO 
ADVECT FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. 
AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE 
GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA 
PENINSULA TO 23N97W. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER 
GRADUALLY MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF 
WATERS THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE 
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY 
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N79W 
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE 
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND 
FAIR CONDITIONS WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER 
WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE 
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW 
NORTH ATLC REGION PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE WEST TO NORTHWEST 
FLOW ALOFT W OF 50W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS 
SUPPORTIVE OF A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 
35N62W. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL ATLC AND EXTENDS 
TROUGHING TO 28N BETWEEN 40W-50W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 
COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W THAT 
CONTINUES SW ALONG 25N50W TO 22N55W WHERE IT BECOMES A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT REMAINING N OF 28N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 
28N. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE 
AZORES NEAR 39N17W CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N24W TO 
22N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN