000 AXNT20 KNHC 211155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 04N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 23W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SE CONUS ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAIN CONTROL OVER THE BASIN. WITH WARM...MOIST...AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN THE LOW-LEVELS EAST OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-90W THIS MORNING. BEYOND TUESDAY...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N80W AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE TAIL END OF THAT FRONT IS ANALYZED AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W. WITH VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION HOWEVER...STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W THAT EXTENDS SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W THEN TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W AS A STATIONARY FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT REMAINING N OF 28N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT TO GALE FORCE ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC. WEST OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF THE EASTERN CONUS AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED E-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N20W CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N28W TO 20N60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN