000 AXNT20 KNHC 202337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 20 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING ALONG 6N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S OVER THE GULF FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE NW GULF IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 95W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH WED THEN INCREASE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE W ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THU ALLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE THU/EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE FRI AND FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT THEN MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N83W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AT 20/2100 UTC EXTENDS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NW GUATEMALA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE W ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THU INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY SAT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES E CUBA BY EARLY SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 30N EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 20/2100 UTC NEAR 32N61W ALONG 27N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM W AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS IS BUILDING INTO THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NE ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N31W NARROWING AS IT CONTINUES ALONG 18N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA JUST S OF TRINIDAD. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W TO 25N50W. A LARGE E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS WITH THE AXIS ALONG 7N/8N E OF 53W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE AND INTO THE E ATLC THU BEFORE STALLING ON FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E ACROSS THE W ATLC IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE AND CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W ATLC WATERS EARLY WED AND DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W ATLC LATE FRI/EARLY SAT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE SAT AND DISSIPATING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW