000 AXNT20 KNHC 201743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 20 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO EQ20W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 2S30W 2S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N E OF 17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-2N BETWEEN 35W-41W AND WITHIN 100 NM ON N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF REMAINS FAIR TODAY DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED IN THE SE CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING A GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAINLY N OF 22N. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM LINGERING INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED TO THE LATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS CARRYING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION TO ALL ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDING CIRRUS STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LIFTING N FROM THE SRN GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER N-ERN NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED TO A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA GUSTING TO 25 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC REGION SUPPORTING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N68W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 25N72W BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN TROUGH CUBA NEAR 23N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTICED N OF 29N WITHIN 290 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT GENERATING SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ROLL CLOUD TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 20 NM AHEAD OF IT. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE THE AZORES AND PORTUGAL NEAR 38N18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA