000 AXNT20 KNHC 201141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 20 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W THEN ALONG 01S TO 40W TO 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 01W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 20W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF PROVIDING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING. WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...OBSERVED WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS FOR THIS HIGH IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDS S-SW TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY ESTABLISHING RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N83W AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INFLUENCES MOST OF THE BASIN WHICH IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS AND AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AREAS. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION REMAINING W OF 55W WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE NORTH CURRENTLY FOCUSED NEAR 36N72W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STORM FORCE 992 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N72W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ONGOING AND FORECAST N OF 29N WEST OF THE FRONT AND N OF 30N EAST OF THE FRONT. WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS HOWEVER LOCATED NORTH OF 32N...THE FRONT REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND EXIT THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION BY TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN CONUS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N19W CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N27W THEN W-SW TO EAST OF THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN