000 AXNT20 KNHC 200555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 20 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W TO 01N44W THEN TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 23W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF PROVIDING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING. WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...OBSERVED WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS FOR THIS HIGH IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EXTENDS S-SW TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY ESTABLISHING RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N83W AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INFLUENCES MOST OF THE BASIN WHICH IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS AND AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AREAS. AT THE SURFACE...TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION REMAINING W OF 50W WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE NORTH CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A GALE FORCE 1000 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N76W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOCATED NORTH OF 32N...THE FRONT REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND EXIT THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION BY TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN CONUS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N19W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N27W THEN W-SW TO EAST OF THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN