000
AXNT20 KNHC 191144
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 
02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
02N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN TO 05S37W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 10W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A 1005 MB 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N88W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
SW ALONG 26N90W TO 22N93W THEN WESTWARD TO NEAR 22N98W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN 
TO COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND 
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 29N. THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND MOVE 
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. IN WAKE 
OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NW TO W WINDS ARE NOTED IN SHIP... 
BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES AND 
CLEARS EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITH 10 TO 15 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 
08N76W NW TO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N91W. EAST OF THIS 
RIDGE AXIS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES THIS FLOW REMAINS VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT WHICH IS 
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR 
MUCH OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...TRADES ARE FORECAST TO 
PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER 
WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION REMAINING 
W OF 58W WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH 
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF 
NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE TROUGH EXTENDS A 
COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W TO 29N62W WHERE 
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 30N72W THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A WARM 
FRONT INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N78W. DUE TO THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING...RESULTING IN A LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
DYNAMICS FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND 
EXIT THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N61W AND CONTINUES TO 
PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA S OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT W OF 45W. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 35W-55W THAT CONTINUES 
TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N47W TO 29N44W. 
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE SURFACE 
TROUGH...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM 
EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 20N-28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC 
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN