000 AXNT20 KNHC 171141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE SRN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 29W CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 14W-33W...FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 33W-45W...AND FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 48W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AN THE NRN GULF. WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC IS KEEPING THE SE CORNER OF THE BASIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS IMPACTING BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE. AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 31N83W TO 29N86W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 29N90W...AND LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT ALONG 29N94W 26N99W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE AXIS ALONG 26N89W TO 24N94W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARE HELPING PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A LINE FROM 28N81W TO 21N97W. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NRN GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FORM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NRN COLOMBIA...BUT DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAIR. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN COVERS THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N70W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N57W TO 29N67W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 24N60W TO 21N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 50W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N45W TO 25N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE AXIS ALONG 21N50W TO 15N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS AND WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 47N15W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON