000 AXNT20 KNHC 161747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO 01N32W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W THEN TO 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 23W-37W...AND S OF 03N BETWEEN 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. THIS FLOW ALOFT PRECEDES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW ARIZONA SOUTHWARD ALONG 114W INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSING NE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N91W THEN SW TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W AS IT BECOMES MORE STATIONARY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 29N90W TO 23N98W. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. NE WINDS FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO VEER EASTERLY BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLC STATES. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT SHIFTS EASTWARD...GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER NE MEXICO AND THE NW GULF THAT WILL TRACK NE TOWARD THE SE CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NW NICARAGUA NEAR 13N86W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. WITH THIS FEATURE ORIGINATING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROVIDING A STABLE AND SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS KEEPING THE BASIN VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ONLY NOTABLE AREA OF ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 59W-71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-65W. THIS AREA OF TROUGHING SUPPORTS TWO SEPARATE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SW NORTH ATLC ZONE AND THE OTHER ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE WESTERN-MOST COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N63W TO 30N73W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE. WITH VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W. FARTHER EAST...THE SECOND FRONT IS ANALYZED AS STATIONARY ALONG 32N43W TO 28N47W TO 26N54W BECOMING A WARM FRONT INTO A WEAK 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. OVER THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 54W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC FEATURES A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES NEAR 39N29W TO 20N38W AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N20W TO 32N26W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM NE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 16/1056 UTC SHOWED STRONGER NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT NORTH OF THE AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN