000 AXNT20 KNHC 152357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 3N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WSW ALONG 1S30W EQ40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. AT SURFACE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...RANGING FROM 10-25 KT W OF 87W. THIS FLOW ACTS IN RESPONSE OF THE LOWER PRESSURES DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FROM THIS SCENARIO...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N89W. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS INLAND...A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY MOVING NE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL BASIN N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-94W. ANOTHER ROUND OF WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF WATERS WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA GIVING A RELATIVELY STABLE AND SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND FAR EASTERN BASIN...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF GUADELOUPE. THESE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT SOME MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N73W TO NEAR 28N78W. OTHER THAN CLOUDINESS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE SAME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N42W TO 26N50W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N60W TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N65W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA