000
AXNT20 KNHC 151754
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 
02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
02N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W AND THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 38W 
TO 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE EQUATOR AND 28W TO 04N49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH 
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND 
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF BASIN. THIS FLOW ALOFT 
PRECEDES A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CONUS AND THE OTHER EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE 
PACIFIC OCEAN. CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W ALONG 28N88W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST 
NEAR 30N92W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 29N89W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. MOST OF THIS 
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITHIN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE 
OF 10 TO 20 KT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE 
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND 
INTRODUCE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF WATERS LATE 
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY SHIFTING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 
BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT THEREAFTER STALLS AND WEAKENS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER 
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N85W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD 
ALONG 85W TO THE SE CONUS. WITH THIS FEATURE ORIGINATING OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA...MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS 
PROVIDING A RELATIVELY STABLE AND SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE IN THE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS KEEPING THE BASIN VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTION AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY NOTABLE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND BARBADOS FROM 10N-15N 
BETWEEN 57W-64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING 
IS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINING N OF 28N W OF 
40W. THIS AREA OF TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE 
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC ZONE ANALYZED FROM 
32N76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE. LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO 
MOVE OFF TO THE E-NE. THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING SW TO 26N50W WHERE 
IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N60W TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. 
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS 
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-32N...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF 
24N EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN 
ISLANDS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF 40W 
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE 
OF 10 TO 20 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN