000 AXNT20 KNHC 141759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W AND THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W TO 01S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 46W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH AXIS ALONG 86W EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE OVERALL...AT THE SURFACE A WEAK 1013 LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 30N89W TO 27N93W THEN CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME. HINTS OF ESTABLISHING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN SHIP...BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS ACROSS THE NW GULF AS WINDS W OF 94W ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SE. FARTHER SE...OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N94W. BY WEDNESDAY...THE S-SE WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY SHIFTING WINDS N-NE WEST OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. W OF 80W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FROM 18N52W TO 10N65W WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AN ATLANTIC FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS TO 19N64W WITH THE EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING S-SW AS A SHEAR LINE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO 17N70W TO 15N80W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHEAR LINE IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 61W-76W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE MONA PASSAGE. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 14/1502 UTC INDICATED STRONGER E-NE WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS BETWEEN 67W-74W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W THAT EXTENDS SW TO 24N58W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 19N64W AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY E-NE. WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N68W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN EMBEDDED 1023 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N34W THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN