000 AXNT20 KNHC 141138 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N13W ALONG 6N18W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-41W WHERE IT CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-10W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 22W-36W...AND S OF 4N W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 14/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW OVER NE LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N91W ALONG 27N92W TO JUST S OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE GULF E OF THE FRONT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N86W TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT THEN NE LIFTING N LATE WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO THU AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BRIEFLY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE NW GULF SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W DRAPING A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 15N74W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM SE AND 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE AREA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 80W-84W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COLOMBIA N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N70W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N47W ALONG 26N53W TO 23N59W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N32W ALONG 21N30W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS W TO 18N47W SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N27W TO 27N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N39W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD E ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NW WATERS TODAY THROUGH TUE WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL CLIP WATERS N OF 30N LATE TUE AND WED. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART FRI EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW