000 AXNT20 KNHC 140547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 7N15W TO 2N22W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E OF 9W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 14/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N93W ALONG 28N94W TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE GULF E OF THE FRONT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE W GULF NW OF A LINE FROM 24N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF 25N AS IT MOVES E THEN NE LIFTING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO THU. A SURFACE LOW WILL BRIEFLY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE NW GULF LATE FRI. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W DRAPING A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE MONA PASSAGE WHERE A SHEAR AXIS IS ANALYZED TO 14N81W. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N69W TO 16N75W. REMNANT COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 11N W OF 80W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COLOMBIA N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THOUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 68W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N76W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W CONTINUING SW ALONG 26N56W TO 21N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO 75W. A SECOND BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 34N33W ALONG 22N31W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS W TO 16N43W SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W ALONG 30N32W TO 31N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 25W-29W. A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N39W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NW WATERS ON TUE. A FRONT WILL CLIP THE W ATLC N OF 30N TUE AND WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC FRI AFTERNOON AND LIE FROM 31N75W TO 28N81W SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW