000
AXNT20 KNHC 131748
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 
01N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
01N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W AND THEN ALONG 01S TO 45W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 07W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH AXIS 
ALONG 86W EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO INLAND PORTIONS 
OF THE SE CONUS. AS A RESULT...A SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY A 
1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N81W...EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS TO 
THE SW GULF NEAR 20N97W AND IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH MODERATE 
E TO SE WINDS E OF 90W AND FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS W OF 
90W. THIS INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS A RESULT OF A WEAK 
1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. CURRENTLY MOST OF 
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND THE SOUTHERLY 
RETURN FLOW IS LOCATED ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 
24N W OF 94W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 85W-94W. 
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF 
THE SE TEXAS COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY SHIFTING 
WINDS NE WEST OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE COLOMBIA NEAR 04N70W 
TO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. 
NORTHEAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE 
PREVAILS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE 
BASIN NORTH AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGHING PRIMARILY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC 
MOVES EASTWARD...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA 
NEAR 18N70W AND TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE ALONG 18N70W TO 
17N77W TO 14N81W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 13/1522 
UTC INDICATED STRONGER E-NE WINDS WEST OF THE SHEAR AXIS. 
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS 
AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 16N 
BETWEEN 67W-74W...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS 
THE BASIN...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH E-NE TRADES 
IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WEST ATLANTIC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N53W THAT EXTENDS SW 
ALONG 24N60W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS 
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE. WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 
1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N81W CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE 
REGION PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS AND A STABLE SCATTERED TO 
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK. FARTHER EAST...AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
36N31W THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 
32N30W TO 24N31W TO 16N43W. THIS SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 1016 MB 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N32W AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED EAST OF 
THE LOW ALONG 32N29W TO 30N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 23W-34W. 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN ALONG 26N/27N AS THE LOW 
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW