000 AXNT20 KNHC 130542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 5N17W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES 1N24W 2N31W 1N36W TO 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 25W-38W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE N CONUS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER N MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. THE SURFACE FLOW CONVERGING WITH THE UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING DENSE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING W OVER THE E/CENTRAL GULF LEAVING THE SKIES OVER THE E GULF MOSTLY CLEAR. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE W GULF LATER TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE STALLING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF WED. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT N ON WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON THU EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO BY THU AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING E OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE TI BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SW HAITI NEAR 18N74W JUST E OF JAMAICA TO NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COLOMBIA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THEN TURNS N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE E CARIBBEAN BY TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N65W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER N MISSISSIPPI. A SECOND BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N34W ALONG 23N43W TO 12N56W SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 30N35W TO BEYOND 32N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W SW TO 21N61W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC MON WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE AND DISSIPATE BY TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NW ATLC TUE. A SECOND FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE W ATLC N OF 28N WED AND THU. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW