000 AXNT20 KNHC 121744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N22W TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE IVORY COAST FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 5W-7W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A STRONG 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N93W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W. 20-25 KT N-NE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 30'S OVER THE N GULF STATES WITH 40'S AND 50'S OVER MOST OF THE N GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE SE TO S GEORGIA AND BRING ABOUT WARMER E-SE FLOW OVER THE GULF. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO N HONDURAS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE E CUBA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE E TO HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W.SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BOTH E AND W OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N60W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N50W TO HISPANIOLA WITH CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA