000 AXNT20 KNHC 111750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 02N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W AND THEN ALONG 01S TO 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 01N-04N BETWEEN 09W-12W...AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 18W-28W...AND S OF 02N BETWEEN 44W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... PRIMARILY WESTERLY CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN PANAMA. AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W TO 22N90W TO 22N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT... WITH MORE EXTENSIVE OVERCAST SKIES NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 25N W OF 90W. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BASIN BY LATER THIS EVENING...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1046 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SETTLE IN OVER THE SE CONUS AND GULF WITH N-NE WINDS REMAINING IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY THEN VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION INFLUENCES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED OVER EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 09N78W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL E OF 80W WITH INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SE OF THE FRONT NW OF A LINE FROM 22N81W TO 16N87W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W TO 16N80W TO 13N83W. AS THE FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN BY LATER THIS EVENING...NE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WHILE THE TRADES EAST OF THE FRONT REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAKER DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES TO A SHEAR LINE...HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THAT SUPPORTS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N73W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 33N67W TO 30N56W. A STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN COUPLED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 63W-74W. GALE FORCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO ABSORB ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS EMERGED OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN