000 AXNT20 KNHC 102332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 1N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 6W-13W...FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 17W-27W...FROM 3S-4N BETWEEN 36W-40W...AND FROM 3S-EQ BETWEEN 41W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO N OF TAMPICO NEAR 24N98W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW GULF S OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF THROUGH N FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM 29N84W TO BEYOND 32N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...90-130 KT SW WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE N GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT RACES SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 20 KT N WINDS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT TOGETHER WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 68W-78W MOVING W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER W CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL SHOWERS TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N57W TO 28N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N23W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N50W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO RACE SE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AND REACH FROM 32N68W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. 20 KT NW WINDS WILL BE BEHIND THIS FRONT TOGETHER WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA