000 AXNT20 KNHC 101732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF BOTH ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH E OF 16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 25N81W CONTINUING SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ON DOPPLER RADAR WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING S TO THE FAR SRN TEXAS REGION. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A FORMING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF IT...AND NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT BEHIND IT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF TODAY... EXPECT IT TO ABSORB A WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW NEAR 23N95W AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHINESS THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT...AND OUT OF THE GULF BY SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 29N81W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 80 NM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA AND FURTHER N. A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N57W 28N70W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SAME BOUNDARY IS ALSO GENERATING STRONGER CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT N OF 25N W OF 50W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SECOND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT ...MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA