000 AXNT20 KNHC 101138 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N22W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N29W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 1N2W TO 2N10W AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 31W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF GIVING THE AREA SW WINDS ALOFT AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 22N94W AT 10/0900 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO 24N96W. A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W TO 24N86W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS COVER THE W GULF W OF 86W WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT N BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO N GULF FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT AND OUT OF THE GULF BY SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS ALONG 75W AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20N W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE E MAINTAINING THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER E CUBA TO NE YUCATAN BY LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N48W. SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AT 10/0300 UTC NEAR 32N60W TO 29N631W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N68W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 32N AND INLAND OVER S FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N25W SW ALONG 22N36W INTO THE TROPICS TO 7N56W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W TO 25N63W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC LATER TODAY AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS E WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE FRI. A SECOND FRONT EMERGES OFF NE FLORIDA FRI NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW