000 AXNT20 KNHC 100555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 30W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF GIVING THE AREA SW WINDS ALOFT AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER W TENNESSEE. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 21N94W AT 10/0300 UTC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA TO 22N87W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF NW OF A LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG 23N90W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT N BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO N GULF FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT AND OUT OF THE GULF BY SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS ALONG 75W AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC DRAWING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE E MAINTAINING THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER E CUBA TO NE YUCATAN BY LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA NE TO BEYOND 32N52W. SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER E TENNESSEE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AT 10/0300 UTC NEAR 32N61W TO 27N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W AND DISSIPATING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 32N AND INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N25W SW ALONG 22N37W INTO THE TROPICS TO 7N55W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N64W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE RIDGE AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE FRI. A SECOND FRONT EMERGES OFF NE FLORIDA FRI NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY LATE MON/EARLY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW