000
AXNT20 KNHC 092335
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA 
NEAR 6N10W TO 5N21W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 2N30W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
3N-5N BETWEEN 11W-20W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 26W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N84W. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE W GULF 
OF MEXICO W OF 90W. FURTHER E...A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY 
FRONT IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 
24N80W TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE GULF N OF THE FRONT 
AND N OF THE LOW HAS 10-15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS. IN CONTRAST IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...90-110 KT SW WINDS ARE NOTED. EXPECT THE 
SURFACE LOW IN 24 HOURS TO MOVE N TO 26N93W WITH CONTINUED RAIN 
AND SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN 
WEAK AND DRIFT N TO 24N WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN 
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 65W-70W MOVING W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND 
JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO 
BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER CUBA...AND THE W CARIBBEAN W 
OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N63W TO THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 58W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N21W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 
THE HIGH TO 27N60W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A THICK 
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST OFF WEST AFRICA E OF 35W FROM 10N-25N 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
THE FRONT TO DRIFT N OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS 
AND CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA