000
AXNT20 KNHC 091742
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1735 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA 
NEAR 7N11W TO 5N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N30W TO 
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF BOTH ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH E OF 
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
AND THE N-WRN COAST OF CUBA ALONG 24N80W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
NEAR 22N86W...WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 
THE NRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW 
LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. THE COMBINATION OF 
THESE FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SRN GULF S OF 24N. GUSTY NNE WINDS UP TO 30 
KT ARE OBSERVED ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LOWS OF 21N. FURTHERMORE 
...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING 
OVER MEXICO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WRN GULF AS MOSAIC 
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS W OF 94W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ALSO DRAWING 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL 
DRIFT NNW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
DRAWING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW AND NW BASIN. 
WEAK NE SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N 
W OF 85W. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE 
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
GUSTING TO 25 KT NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W 
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC INTO 
THE N-CENTRAL ATLC. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N67W 
TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W...WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAK 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
ALONG 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED E 
OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA