000
AXNT20 KNHC 072342
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA 
NEAR 5N8W TO 2N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO EQ30W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 24W-38W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
ALONG 23N93W 18N93W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO W OF 93W TO AS FAR N AS CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS. ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO W CUBA NEAR 
22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR S OF 27N AND E OF 
83W. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT 
CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA ...THE SRN GULF S OF 
25N...AND MEXICO E OF 100W...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO 
RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE 
ALONG THE COASTS OF N COLOMBIA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA... 
HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR A PATCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED 
SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N76W TO S 
FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
TROUGH. THE TAIL END COLD FRONT IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
FROM 32N41W TO 27N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
26N44W TO 18N46W PRODUCING ONLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND WIND 
SHIFTS. A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
40N18W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK AREA OF SAHARAN 
DUST OFF WEST AFRICA E OF 30W FROM 10N-25N SUPPRESSING 
DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED 
RAIN AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. ALSO EXPECT 
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA