000
AXNT20 KNHC 071802
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF NIGERIA 
NEAR 6N4E ALONG 2N6W TO EQ16W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 
2S25W EQ35W TO THE COAST PF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED WEAK 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50-80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 1W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
25W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN 
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO WRN CUBA ALONG 27N81W TO 23N83W. SURFACE 
AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD 
SURROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS PROVIDING NE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE 
GULF...WITH ENOUGH LIFTING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN 
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
OVERCAST SKIES WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS IS NOTICED OVER 
THE FAR WRN GULF W OF 95W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ADVECTING 
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERCAST MULTI 
LAYER CLOUDINESS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THIS REGION. THE SURFACE 
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND CLEAR THE GULF BASIN BY 
WEDNESDAY. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE 
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL 
U.S. PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY 
INCREASING E-NE WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 
23N...WITH A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE 
SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS IS GIVING THE OVERALL STABLE 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY TRADES IN 
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
COLOMBIA. THE ONLY AREA OF WEAK ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTICED 
ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 18N. AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THESE GROUP 
OF ISLANDS BETWEEN 50W-60W...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FAR 
ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS SEABOARD ALONG 
32N77W INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W. A BROAD 
CYCLONIC WIND FIELD SURROUNDS THE TROUGH AXIS WITH ENOUGH 
INSTABILITY AND LIFTING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 77W...AFFECTING 
MOSTLY THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA AND NW BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE 
...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN ATLC S OF 
32N W OF 47W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE N 
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA 
ALONG 32N42W TO 27N50W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED 
SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 27N42W TO 20N43W. THE COMBINATION OF 
THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 37W. A 
DISSIPATING FRONT IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N46W 
ALONG 29N53W TO 30N61W WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION. VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK AREA OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING OFF 
WEST AFRICA E OF 40W FROM 7N-21N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA