000
AXNT20 KNHC 051756
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 4N10W WHERE THE ITCZ 
AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 2N18W 3N31W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 4W-15W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SW AFRICA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING 
FROM 27N90W ACROSS NE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE 
W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 
05/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 27N87W 23N87W THROUGH THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W GENERATING SCATTERED TO 
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N E OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH 
IS ALSO AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND 
W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS HAITI THROUGH THE W ATLC 
TO OVER NE FLORIDA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N E OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS AREA IS 
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AN 
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 
05/1500 UTC OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG 27N90W TO 27N95W WHERE 
IT PULLS UP STATIONARY AS IT CURVES S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST 
S OF TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE COVERING THE W GULF N OF 26N W OF 92W 
AND FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND 
FROM FLORIDA BID BEND TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON MORNING WITH 
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG MEXICAN COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT 
WILL THEN STALL TUE AND DRIFT NW AGAIN WED AND THU. A SURFACE 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST N OF THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY AND WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH 
TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS SE GULF AND PORTIONS OF 
CUBA THROUGH MON. TROUGH WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY E THROUGH WED. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE 
W CARIBBEAN ACROSS NE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 
21N86W TO JUST OF THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA INTO THE SW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W 
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF A LINE 
FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. THIS AREA IS 
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
THAT EXTENDS TO OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS E OF 
THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS 
BUT OTHERWISE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT E ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN TO 85W THROUGH WED 
THEN DISSIPATE THU. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE 
TROUGH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF STRONG SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE W 
AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
THE TROPICS NEAR 10N57W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 
BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W TO 29N41W 
WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY TO 23N52W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 
23N65W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT N 
OF 29N AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BROAD CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH 
COVERS THE E ATLC FROM 7N-30N E OF 40W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
N OVER THE FAR E TROPICAL ATLC AND W AFRICA ENHANCING ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PORTION OF THE ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
EMBEDDED BETWEEN THE ABOVE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 18N31W TO 26N32W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
FROM 20N-27N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 28W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1044 MB 
HIGH ABOUT 300 NM E OF PORTUGAL. W ATLC HIGH WILL SHIFT E AND 
WEAKEN THROUGH MON AS COLD FRONT SINKS S ACROSS NW ATLC TO ALONG 
30N/31N. A SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS N FLORIDA 
AND SE U.S. COAST MON THEN SHIFT SE INTO NW PORTION EARLY TUE 
REACHING FROM 32N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED MORNING THEN 
DISSIPATING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THU. THE 
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS S 
FLORIDA TONIGHT BEING ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA MON AND 
DISSIPATE ON TUE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW