000 AXNT20 KNHC 051140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 05N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N13W TO 01N29W TO 02N43W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 08W-28W...AND FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 34W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE HAS MOVED EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A REMAINING SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 29N91W TO 26N96W TO 22N98W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS OF 05/0900 UTC WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS N OF 21N W OF 95W...AND N OF 27N W OF 92W. WINDS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 05/0402 UTC INDICATED N-NE IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WEST OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE NORTHERLY WIND FIELD FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF 90W THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N90W TO A BASE OVER PANAMA IN CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED E OF 90W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W TO 27N88W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 80W-89W. WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W TO A BASE OVER PANAMA NEAR 08N81W. AS A RESULT...SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HOWEVER INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 70W AND THEREFORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 16N W OF 78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-80W IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 75W THIS MORNING...FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN W OF 40W AND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N66W. A COLD FRONT BRIDGES THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W AND EXTENDS SW TO 24N52W WHERE IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N64W. MOST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 55W. EAST OF 35W... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 27W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N31W TO 26N32W. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS HOWEVER IS SUPPORTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 12N E OF 26W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN