000 AXNT20 KNHC 050554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N15W TO 03N25W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 06W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE GULF NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA THAT EXTENDS SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 22N W OF 93W. WINDS ARE OBSERVED N-NE IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WEST OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THE NORTHERLY WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF 90W THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N90W TO A BASE OVER PANAMA IN CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED E OF 90W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W TO 26N87W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-89W. WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W TO A BASE OVER PANAMA NEAR 08N81W. AS A RESULT...SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HOWEVER INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND THEREFORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 14N W OF 76W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-80W IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 75W THIS EVENING...FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PUERTO RICO...THE ABC ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN W OF 40W AND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N71W. A COLD FRONT BRIDGES THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND EXTENDS SW TO 25N53W WHERE IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 23N64W TO 26N76W. MOST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 60W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N60W TO 24N50W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EAST OF 35W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 28W WHICH SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N32W TO 27N32W. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS HOWEVER IS SUPPORTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF 28W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN