000 AXNT20 KNHC 041140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 07N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N20W TO 03N26W TO 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 47W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 91W FROM THE SE LOUISIANA COAST TO A BASE IN THE SW GULF NEAR 20N91W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS E-SE FLOW PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE. THESE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 37N75W. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME AS A COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER PANAMA. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 77W TO OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA. EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W TO 78W AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 12 FT. EAST OF 70W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS VERY LITTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 10N61W TO BEYOND 20N70W. WITH THIS OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN FAIR WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM TRINIDAD IN THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N61W NORTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND 32N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W THEN W-SW TO 26N60W WHERE THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE WESTWARD TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N59W TO 27N53W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 46N07W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO 32N29W SW TO 25N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN