000
AXNT20 KNHC 030533
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W
TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO 3N30W 2N37W 3N47W...
INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N TO THE 
EAST OF 5W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 70W...SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 29N78W. THE COLD FRONT 
DISSIPATES FROM 29N78W TO 28N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
BEYOND 30N88W AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. 
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA.
SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LESS THAN GALE-FORCE AT 36 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 23N44W TO
19N44W 13N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
24N TO 26N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. PART OF THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH 
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH THAT ORIGINALLY PASSED THROUGH 
MOROCCO 24 HOURS AGO. THE PART OF THE TROUGH THAT WAS PASSING 
THROUGH WESTERN AFRICA AT THAT MOMENT HAS SEPARATED ITSELF 
COMPLETELY FROM THE 32N43W 13N48W TROUGH...AND IT NOW REMAINS 
ONLY IN AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 30N47W 
TO 27N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT