000
AXNT20 KNHC 022352
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W 
ALONG 1N27W 3N42W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
4N-6N BETWEEN 39W-43W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NE 
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N81W TO 31N88W. NO SHOWER 
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WITH STRONG DRY AIR TO 
THE N PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS 
UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH OVER 
ILLINOIS. MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE BASE OF THE 
RIDGE BECOMING SELY OVER THE WRN GULF. WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 
5-10 KTS WITH A SMALL AREA OF 15 KT WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE 
BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS TO 
THE W EXTENDING DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS PATTERN IS DRAWING 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF AND SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS 
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN GULF. EXPECT THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE 
BASIN WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY 
REMAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL PRESENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE W ATLC AND ERN CONUS. THIS GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING 20-25 KT 
TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 
GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ERN S AMERICA IS MAINTAINING 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. SOME UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE WRN HALF SUPPORTING HIGH 
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES OF 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE TRADEWIND FLOW. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW ATLC 
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W TO 29N81W. POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ATLC...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA TO THE S PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 44W SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WHICH IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE 
AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 
28W SUPPORTING A 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 
42N28W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON