000 AXNT20 KNHC 011745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE NRN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 2N25W... WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 3N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH E OF 32W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 32W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE FAR SW PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SSE WINDS 5-15 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...GUSTING TO 25 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THIS REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CARRYING A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN TEXAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFTING AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE N-CENTRAL GULF BASIN N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-94W. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION WILL LINGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 70W-80W...GENERATING AN EASTERLY WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND ALONG THE COAST OF NRN COLOMBIA GUSTING TO GALE FORCE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W...GENERATING SEAS 10-15 FEET IN THIS REGION. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CLUSTERS OF WEAK SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL SURFACE FLOW N OF 14N...SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXCEPT FOR THE NW BASIN. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION INCREASING OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NRN NICARAGUA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CUTS INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N45W SW TO 29N53W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY TO 26N68W AND TO SHEAR LINE AXIS TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE IS BARY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DETACH FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT...FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE STATIONARY AND SHEAR LINE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS NEAR 30N41W AND 35N27W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FAR ERN ATLC DRAWING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ REGION TO WEST AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA