000
AXNT20 KNHC 311112
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W
TO 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N20W TO 3N27W 1N40W...
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 9W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N76W...THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL 
ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N97W 21N96W 19N94W. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 92W AND THE 
MEXICO/TEXAS COASTS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES OVER
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 27N70W TO 
25N80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 89W IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W 29N64W AND 27N70W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N70W...ACROSS 
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N55W TO 28N66W 25N80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST
OF 89W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A 32N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO 24N29W 19N42W 
8N47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 28W
AND 31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT