000 AXNT20 KNHC 292345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N18W TO 03N28W TO 03N38W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ADVECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS IN THE EXTREME NE REGION AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N80W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WATERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 84W-90W. OTHERWISE...A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 33N91W IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR THIS EVENING WITH NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH SE RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY MIDWEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 08N63W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO BEYOND 28N61W IN THE WESTERN ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE E OF 85W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. WITH FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES REMAINING PERSISTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE W OF 80W AND ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FROM 20N66W TO BEYOND 40N50W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N52W...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 33N70W TO 31N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN LINGERING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...IS LOCATED TO THE SE OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W TO 30N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N80W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGHING IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 30N20W TO 20N35W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 20N30W TO 27N35W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING NE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING...VERY LITTLE SUPPORT REMAINS FOR CONVECTION AS THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS STABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN