000 AXNT20 KNHC 291124 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N14W TO 6N19W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 2N29W 4N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 6W-26W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 40W-59W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS AT 29/0900 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA JUST S OF NAPLES TO 25N84W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 22N90W INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 19N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT AND S OF 23N W OF 93W TO OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SW TO TEXAS...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS DISSIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OVER NE MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1032 MB HIGHS OVER W/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY S MON THEN DISSIPATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MON NIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE W GULF THROUGH THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE FAR NW GULF THU. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF W OF 82W WHERE THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N W OF 85W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF LINE FROM SW HAITI TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE N CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED THEN WEAKEN THU. AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AND OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0900 UTC IS DRAPED ALONG 32N61W TO 31N68W BECOMING STATIONARY THEN CONTINUING ALONG 29N74W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N49W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N BETWEEN 25W-40W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N32W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W ALONG 27N33W THROUGH A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 23N32W AND CONTINUING ALONG 20N33W TO 16N39W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 27W-33W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR E ATLC E OF 25W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY MON AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO W CUBA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY TUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER NE OF AREA WED AND THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAE NW WATERS LATE WED AND THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW