000 AXNT20 KNHC 282346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO 07N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO 03N30W TO 03N45W TO 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 19W-26W...AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 35W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN EXPERIENCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING S OF 26N BETWEEN 82W-89W. OTHERWISE...A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR THIS EVENING WITH NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT OVER A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA NORTHWARD TO BEYOND 23N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR E OF 80W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING E OF 80W. W OF 80W...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES AND IS PROVIDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 81W-88W. THESE ARE MOST LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS. THESE TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLC WATERS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 65W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOSTLY SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS...ONE A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 36N72W...AND THE OTHER A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N55W. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRIDGES THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE ZONES WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W TO 31N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W THEN TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE THE EASTERNMOST HIGH STRETCHES INFLUENCE EAST TO 40W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N34W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 15N40W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N32W TO 21N32W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 28W-37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN