000 AXNT20 KNHC 281133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N16W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 3N30W 3N42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 9W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE E OVER THE E CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT 28/0900 UTC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 23N89W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE N GULF AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OFF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 28N89W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF SE LOUISIANA WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD E ACROSS THE GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THEN SETS UP OVER THE NW GULF LATE MON THROUGH WED. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW AREA WHERE THE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W THEN DISSIPATING TO OVER N GUATEMALA AND DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 77W-85W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 63W-68W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE N CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 28/0900 UTC NEAR 32N71W ALONG 28N76W ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 25N81W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N55W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-45W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO 23N37W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 30W-39W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR E ATLC E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E THROUGH EARLY SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD E ACROSS THE W ATLC SUN PUSHING THE FRONT TO NEAR 32N68W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND STATIONARY TO W CUBA BY EARLY SUN EVENING AND FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO 26N71W AND STATIONARY TO W CUBA MON. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THEN WEAKENS SOME ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW