000 AXNT20 KNHC 271747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SRN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N18W ALONG 3N30W 3N40W 4N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-34W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO 28N83W NEAR TAMPA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N90W. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER LAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WATER WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 84W-86W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN AND ERN CONUS. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS HELPING PROVIDE VERY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW GULF. SURFACE RIDGING IS ALSO BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER TEXAS. WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING WEAKER OVER THE WRN GULF NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SE BEFORE STALLING OVER S FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 68W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ESPECIALLY NOTED FROM 14N-17N. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER S FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY STILL IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE FAR WRN ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE UNITED STATES ERN SEABOARD. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT EWD. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N62W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 43W COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N37W TO 21N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NRN TIP OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH SINKS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N39W TO 28N43W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 43N19W. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON