000 AXNT20 KNHC 271138 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO 3N24W 4N46W...AND TO 3N51W AT THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 12W... AND TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CROSSING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA AND BELIZE...AND IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FROM SOUTH AMERICA...NORTHEASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...POSSIBLY CONCENTRATED MORE IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 81W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 31N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W 26N41W TO 18N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W... AND TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 26N73W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N64W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO 25N55W AND 18N51W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 15N33W TO 26N28W BEYOND 32N25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT