000
AXNT20 KNHC 270549
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W
TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W TO 4N30W 3N40W...AND TO 
3N51W AT THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N 
BETWEEN 20W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 12W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH KENTUCKY AND 
TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF 
OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE 
NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF FROM 21N IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. THE STRONG PRECIPITATION WAS 
TAKING PLACE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AROUND 26/2300 UTC. IT 
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATED AND RE-FORMED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE 
PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER 
THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FROM 
SOUTH AMERICA...NORTHEASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...POSSIBLY CONCENTRATED MORE
IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS AN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO 31N55W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N41W 21N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. PRECIPITATION 
ALSO IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. ONE 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 24N83W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO
28N75W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N66W.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO 27N55W AND 25N43W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE
GOES FROM 13N35W TO 23N30W AND 32N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT