000 AXNT20 KNHC 261744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W ALONG 2N30W 4N42W 2N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 16W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 33W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W ALONG 27N90W 21N95W. A STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG A SQUALL LINE FROM 30N89W TO 28N89W WHERE IT THEN RUNS ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL COVERS THE ERN GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 78W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLC WHICH IS KEEPING THE ERN GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF REACHING 20 KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE OBSERVED. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EWD WITH LIKELY STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 78W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ESPECIALLY NOTED S OF JAMAICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN GULF OF MEXICO...ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 78W SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 34N69W. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TWO SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE FIRST IS ALONG 40N49W TO 23N56W. THE SECOND IS ALONG 37N42W TO 26N38W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N40W TO 18N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE AXIS. TO THE S...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 16N57W TO 10N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 41N24W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON