000
AXNT20 KNHC 260539
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W...
TO 7N14W AND 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO 4N26W
3N40W...AND CURVING TO 1N50W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH 
OF 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 
40W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 12W AND 20W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS 
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND U.S.A. GULF COASTAL STATES...EXCEPT FOR TEXAS.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH EAST TEXAS...
THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N94W 29N92W BEYOND
30N92W IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FROM SOUTH AMERICA...
NORTHEASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA. THE 
COMPARATIVELY GREATEST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE TO THE EAST OF 72W...AND TO THE WEST OF 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 29N43W 
23N54W AND 18N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N40W 27N43W 24N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH 
OF 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 57W. THIS WIND FLOW 
MOVES AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N70W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 10N24W 20N24W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT