000 AXNT20 KNHC 251745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA CROSSING THE SRN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W ALONG 5N18W 2N27W 3N42W EQ53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 26W-33W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 43W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY AT 29N96W TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS AT 26N97W. THE SQUALL LINE PRECEDES A COLD FRONT FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WRN TEXAS/NRN MEXICO SUPPORTS THE FRONT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUE ITS WAY ACROSS THE BASIN. FOR NOW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH AXIS UP THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN BESIDES THE NW CORNER. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS SPREAD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WITH LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BOTH AHEAD AND ALONG THE AXIS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 81W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FAR NERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 61W...BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND IS CAUSING LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE BASIN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ESPECIALLY NOTED NEAR JAMAICA AND ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 81W SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A PAIR OF 1024/1025 MB HIGHS NEAR 32N62W AND 30N66W RESPECTIVELY. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N44W TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N59W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N40W 27N47W 20N49W 14N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 49W-55W. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALSO E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 19N46W 25N41W 32N37W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 31W SUPPORTING A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N27W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON