000
AXNT20 KNHC 251154
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 
9N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N16W TO 2N25W 5N41W...AND CURVING TO 
2N51W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 31W...AND 
TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 51W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A NORTHERN MEXICO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...JUST OUTSIDE WEST TEXAS...INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND U.S.A. GULF COASTAL STATES. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURVING FROM 
MEXICO NEAR 20N100W...THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST REACHES 
33N73W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES 32N78W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONNECTS TO THE COLD FRONT AND IT CONTINUES 
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THE 
GULF WATERS...TO THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...INTO EAST TEXAS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT 
IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
IS RELATED TO THE 21N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH 
THAT REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS PARTS OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FROM SOUTH AMERICA...NORTHEASTWARD. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N IN MANY PARTS OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N58W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N45W TO A 30N47W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 34W AND 60W.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 13N47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N
TO THE EAST OF 23W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY IS NEAR 34N9W IN THE WATERS OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N67W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SEPARATE 
SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 24N33W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 33N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT